VCF renewals ▲ 31.4% YoY· Symantec EDR true-ups ▲ 18%· Carbon Black avg quote uplift +22%· Mainframe MIPS capacity squeezes ▲· Audit notices ▲ 47% QoQ· Our last 10 deals avg −41% on quote· VCF renewals ▲ 31.4% YoY· Symantec EDR true-ups ▲ 18%· Carbon Black avg quote uplift +22%· Mainframe MIPS capacity squeezes ▲· Audit notices ▲ 47% QoQ· Our last 10 deals avg −41% on quote
Wednesday · 27 May · MMXXVIIssue II
Independent · Buyer-SideLive
Broadcom Negotiations
VMware · Symantec · CA · Carbon Black · Mainframe · Brocade The buyer's report on Broadcom contract economics. Not affiliated with Broadcom Inc.
Strategy & Negotiation

The BATNA construction lever most Broadcom buyers leave on the table.

An implicit BATNA is a feeling. A constructed BATNA is a document. The seller reads one and dismisses the other. The cost of construction is 1 to 2 percent of the deal value.

The lever most Broadcom buyers leave on the table is not a clause, a metric, or a discount tier. It is the construction of the buyer's own best alternative to a negotiated agreement. BATNA construction is the work of building, costing and validating an option that the buyer could credibly take if the renewal did not close on acceptable terms. Almost every buyer we engage has an implicit BATNA. Almost no buyer has a constructed one. The difference between the two is measured in tens of millions of dollars across the engagements the Desk has run.

BATNA is a term from negotiation theory that most procurement teams have heard and most have never operationalised. The reason it is the lever buyers miss is not that the concept is unfamiliar. The reason is that the work of construction is unglamorous, sits on the buyer side of the table, and pays back in a way that is hard to see until the seller's posture changes.

Implicit versus constructed BATNA

An implicit BATNA is a feeling. The buyer feels that they could probably switch to Nutanix, or that they could probably take their endpoint protection to CrowdStrike, or that they could probably rewrite the CA workload to a modern replacement. The feeling does not survive the first time the Broadcom desk asks for evidence, and the desk asks for evidence implicitly in almost every negotiation.

A constructed BATNA is a document. It contains a costed migration model, a technical validation, a timeline, an owner on the buyer side, and a signed statement of work from the alternative vendor that the buyer has reviewed and is in a position to execute. The document does not need to be acted on. It needs to be real enough that, if it appeared in front of a third party arbitrator, it would survive the first round of questions.

Why the lever is so undervalued

The construction work is expensive in time and cheap in money. A credible BATNA on a $20M annual Broadcom renewal costs the buyer between $80K and $200K to construct, including the alternative vendor's pre sales investment, the buyer's internal staff time, and a small amount of advisory cost. The return on that investment, measured against the concession band that opens in the renewal once the BATNA is visible, is in the 15 to 50 times range across the engagements we have observed.

"BATNA is the cheapest lever in the negotiation toolkit and the one buyers reliably refuse to fund. The discount it produces is invisible until the seller's posture shifts, and then it is undeniable."Exit Strategist, The Desk

The reason it is undervalued is that the buyer's procurement organisation does not have a line item for it. There is no budget code for "build an alternative pathway to make the incumbent vendor honest." Without the budget code, the work does not happen, and without the work, the lever is not available when the negotiation arrives.

What a constructed BATNA actually contains

The Desk's standard construction includes five components. A technical validation that the alternative actually meets the workload requirements. A migration cost model in three scenarios: lift and shift, refactor, and parallel run. A timeline with named owners on both the buyer side and the alternative vendor. A signed pre signature statement of work that the alternative vendor commits to honouring within a defined window. And a board level memo that frames the BATNA as a decision option, not a threat.

The board memo is the piece most buyers skip. Without it, the BATNA exists on the procurement team's drive and not in the buyer organisation's institutional memory. The seller can dismiss a procurement BATNA. The seller cannot dismiss a board level decision option, because the seller's account team has visibility into how board level decisions get made on the buyer side.

How the BATNA is signalled

The BATNA does not need to be brandished. The signal that the BATNA exists is more important than the content of the BATNA itself. The signal travels in three places. The first is the buyer's tone in the first commercial meeting, which becomes calmer and less reactive when the BATNA exists. The second is the buyer's calendar, which can accommodate a slip into the next quarter without panic when the BATNA exists. The third is the buyer's questions, which become more specific when the BATNA exists because the buyer is now comparing two real options rather than reacting to one quoted option.

The Broadcom desk reads these signals reliably. We have seen the opening quote on a renewal move 8 to 14 percent between the first meeting and the second meeting based on nothing except the buyer's signalled posture shifting from "we are reviewing your renewal proposal" to "we are evaluating two options of which yours is one."

Avg cost to construct a credible BATNA, $20M deal$80K to $200K
Avg concession band shift once BATNA is visible18% to 34%
Cases in last 10 deals where BATNA was actually executed1 of 10
Cases where BATNA produced renegotiation9 of 10

The three failure modes of constructed BATNA

Construction is not enough. The Desk has seen three failure modes that show up consistently when buyers attempt the work without the right framing. The first failure mode is the brandished BATNA. The buyer constructs the alternative, then announces it loudly to the seller. The signal becomes a threat. The seller's posture becomes defensive. The concession band closes rather than opens. The work was correct. The framing was wrong.

The second failure mode is the unfunded BATNA. The buyer constructs the alternative on paper but the alternative vendor has not committed pre sales hours and the buyer has not allocated migration budget in the operating plan. The seller's account team reads this within one meeting. The seller knows the buyer cannot actually execute. The signal degrades to noise. The construction work was technically complete but commercially hollow.

The third failure mode is the stale BATNA. The buyer constructs the alternative at the start of a 12 month engagement and the document is unchanged when the negotiation closes. Alternative vendor pricing moves. Alternative vendor product capability moves. The buyer's own workload moves. A stale BATNA is worse than no BATNA because the seller can demonstrate that the alternative does not currently meet the buyer's needs, and the demonstration is correct on the day it is made.

The Desk's standing protocol is to refresh the BATNA every 90 days for the duration of any negotiation longer than that. The refresh is a fraction of the original construction cost and keeps the document live. A live BATNA is the only kind that produces the concession band shift the construction was supposed to produce.

What we have seen on live deals

On an energy major's VCF exit engagement closed last quarter, the buyer constructed a full BATNA over a 10 week window, including a signed pre signature statement of work from an alternative hypervisor vendor. The buyer never executed the BATNA. The buyer also never had to. The Broadcom desk revised the renewal proposal twice in the four weeks following the BATNA's visibility and closed at a 41 percent reduction off opening quote. The buyer continues to run VMware. The BATNA continues to sit in the procurement team's drive and the board's memory.

The takeaway

  • An implicit BATNA is a feeling. A constructed BATNA is a document. The seller reads one and dismisses the other. The construction work is what gives the buyer the lever, not the feeling.
  • Construction cost is 1 to 2 percent of the deal value. Concession band shift is 18 to 34 percent. The return on construction is consistently the highest measurable single lever in the buyer's toolkit.
  • The BATNA does not need to be executed. It needs to be visible, real, and survivable under questioning. Buyers who construct it almost never use it. They also almost never need to.
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