VCF renewals ▲ 31.4% YoY· Symantec EDR true ups ▲ 18%· Carbon Black avg quote uplift +22%· Mainframe MIPS capacity squeezes ▲· Audit notices ▲ 47% QoQ· Our last 10 deals avg −41% on quote· VCF renewals ▲ 31.4% YoY· Symantec EDR true ups ▲ 18%· Carbon Black avg quote uplift +22%· Mainframe MIPS capacity squeezes ▲· Audit notices ▲ 47% QoQ· Our last 10 deals avg −41% on quote
Wednesday · 27 May · MMXXVIIssue II
Independent · Buyer-SideLive
Exit Planning
Migration economics · Residual liability · Posture shift The buyer's brief on changing the deal even when you are not actually leaving. Not affiliated with Broadcom Inc.
The Lead · Service Brief · Exit Planning

The exit plan that changes the renewal.

A five week build of the real migration economics off a Broadcom product. Most buyers we run this for never actually leave. The plan itself is what shifts the renewal posture.
By The Negotiation Desk · 41 exit plans built · most clients renewed

The seller's strongest position on a Broadcom renewal is the same position they had at acquisition. There is nowhere else for you to go in the timeframe you have. The reason that position works is that almost no buyer arrives at the renewal table with the migration math actually done. Vague references to alternatives count for nothing against a quote on the table and a deadline on the calendar. A written, costed, time bounded exit plan, signed off internally, changes the conversation completely. Even if the buyer never uses it.

The work is five weeks. Week one is target selection. We map the realistic alternative pathways for the specific product in scope, by workload, by region, by integration footprint. Week two is the actual migration economics. The cost of moving, the cost of running parallel, the residual liability on the existing contract, the time to first benefit. Week three is the timeline. The phasing, the dependencies, the resourcing model. Week four is the internal sign off. The plan goes through CFO and CIO review and becomes a real document, not a slide. Week five is posture. We tell you exactly how to use the plan in the renewal conversation, and how not to.

"We were not bluffing. The plan was real and signed off. The renewal that came back was a different deal entirely."SVP Infrastructure · Energy major

The seller can usually tell the difference between a buyer who is posturing and a buyer who has the work done. The posture talks about alternatives in general terms. The buyer with the work done can cite the year one cost, the cutover date, the residual liability number, the workloads moving first. The seller's pricing model assumes the second buyer needs a much smaller concession to stay than the first buyer does to leave. The economics of the renewal restructure to reflect that, and the buyer captures the value whether or not they actually exit.

Most of the exit plans we have built have not been executed. They were not designed to be. They were designed to change the renewal that came back. Read the case below for one example on a VMware exit that became a renewal.

§ 02

Outcomes on exit plans

Verified · Net of fees · Renewal delta after plan
Plans delivered
41
Costed, timed, signed off internally. Across the full Broadcom stack.
▲ pre and post acquisition era
Renewed on better terms
71%
Of buyers who built the plan ended up renewing rather than executing.
▲ practice wide
Avg renewal shift
−37%
Reduction on opening renewal quote when a real exit plan exists.
▲ vs matched no plan sample
Migration accuracy
±8%
Variance between plan economics and actual cost on plans that executed.
▲ verified post move
§ 04

Field notes

What real exit plans look like this quarter
MainframeQ2 · 11 min read

The IPLA versus MSU decision that changes your mainframe contract

The single biggest exit relevant lever in mainframe negotiation right now is the licensing structure decision itself. The economics of moving between models have shifted enough this year to merit a fresh review on every renewal.

Read essay →
Renewal strategyQ2 · 11 min read

What a defensible three year commit looks like in 2026

Multi year commits used to mean discount in exchange for predictability. The math has shifted. Here is the structure that protects you against mid term consumption changes, audit findings, and Broadcom roadmap pivots.

Read essay →
VMwareQ2 · 7 min read

Why the VCF core minimum is the wrong fight to pick first

The core minimum gets all the attention because it is the headline number. It is rarely the term that decides the deal. The real lever sits two clauses deeper, in subscription conversion mechanics and ramp protection.

Read essay →
Adjacent practice · VMware Cloud Foundation desk →
Correspondence Invited

Write before the quote becomes a position.

Two analyst calls. No pitch. We tell you what we would do, what the leverage actually is, and whether we are the right firm. If we are not, we will say so.
Who we work for. Buyer-side only. No reseller relationship with Broadcom. No partnership of any kind. We do not earn anything from products sold or renewed. Only from outcomes delivered against the contract.